I. Overview
In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis, followed by the global financial crisis, affected all countries in the world, disrupting the normal global economic order. Affected by the world economic and financial crisis, China's economic growth has been slowing for years, and the slowdown has been sharper than expected. As the superior export products of the magnetic material in our country, it is severely impacted by the rapid decline of consumer markets in Europe and America, and its industry situation is extremely severe. But there are plenty of opportunities lurking in the industry's dangerous downturn. Therefore, it is particularly important for enterprises in the magnetic material industry to timely understand the domestic and foreign economic and industrial situation and market dynamics, master the direction of market development, practice internal skills and cope with market changes.
two Current situation of magnetic material industry in China
At present, China is a veritable big country in magnetic material products, and also a global magnetic material manufacturing base, with nearly half of the export of magnetic materials. Since the third quarter of 2008, the magnetic material industry in China has been affected by the global financial crisis. The industry as a whole into the off-season and depression has become more and more obvious. After entering the fourth quarter, the orders of material companies suddenly dropped sharply, the production lines of enterprises stopped more than 50%, most of the enterprises are not working enough, and a few of them have closed down. Magnetic industry has entered a long and painful "winter" season. According to our statistics, since the second half of 2008, the member units across the country have reported a substantial decrease in foreign orders and a significant decline in exports, especially in the fourth quarter. The main reason is the continuous appreciation of RMB in recent years, which brings a lot of foreign exchange losses to the export enterprises of magnetic products. In a weak US dollar environment, raw material and energy prices fluctuate, causing great difficulties for enterprises in production management. Coupled with the global financial crisis, the export of magnetic products encountered the second cold current; The strong combination of TDK and EPCOS, two international soft magnetic ferrite giants, has also brought a strong impact on the export of domestic soft magnetic ferrite industry to Europe and America, making China's soft magnetic ferrite industry encounter unprecedented difficulties and greater difficulties than other types of magnetic material industry.
Since most domestic enterprises are engaged in the production of conventional medium and low grade products, they have certain advantages in export, but they have no obvious advantages and competitiveness in the domestic market. At present, the production of many such enterprises has dropped by more than half, leaving most of the equipment in the factories idle, leaving workers with nothing to do, and some enterprises even stop production altogether. A small number of enterprises shut down because the capital chain is completely broken, no confidence in the market, unable to support and maintain. Overall, the current situation of the magnetic industry is quite grim. From the perspective of the impact of the whole industry classification, the soft magnetic ferrite industry is the most affected, followed by permanent magnet ferrite, NdFEB permanent magnet, raw materials and accessories manufacturing, special equipment and instrument manufacturing; But there are still a small number of small and medium-sized enterprises (about 10 percent) that still insist on full production. Such enterprises are mainly those with advantages and competitiveness, while those with small market size and small export proportion can adapt to the market flexibly. In addition, about 40% of enterprises have cut production by nearly half, and nearly 30% have cut production by more than half. Specialized equipment manufacturers were relatively unaffected by the market in 2008, but this will be evident in 2009.
Because our magnetic material products are mainly low-grade, domestic competition is fierce. Especially in recent years, due to the sharp rise and fluctuation of energy, raw materials and labor costs, manufacturing costs have risen, making it more difficult for enterprises to manage and control costs. Industry enterprises generally show the situation of increasing profit and decreasing quantity. On the other hand, due to the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States, the global economy is weak, the RMB continues to appreciate, the domestic capital market is depressed, the housing market is depressed, investment and consumption are inhibited, the export in the second half of 2008 fell sharply, which caused considerable pressure on the current magnetic material industry, and seriously restricted the development of domestic national enterprises. It is expected that 2009 will be the most difficult year for the magnetic material industry.
3. The countermeasures of Chinese magnetic material industry to cope with the changing situation
The two sides of the coin are also on display in the current financial crisis. Although the current financial and economic situation at home and abroad has a great impact on the magnetic industry, making many enterprises in a difficult situation, but this situation also hides some rare opportunities.
1. Objectively understand the "crisis" and "opportunity" in crisis.
In fact, although we do not yet know how long this crisis will last, nor can we accurately assess how badly China will be affected by this crisis, or even how to recover from it, because it is too unpredictable. But if we look at the crisis from another Angle, there must be opportunities as well as risks in terms of the crisis itself. How to make use of risks to seize opportunities is the right attitude towards the status quo. If you take a long view and look back at the history of mankind for nearly 100 years, economic crises have always happened once in a while. This is a process of self-destruction, self-repair and self-reconstruction after economic development reaches a certain level. It is an inevitable law of economic and social development. And, of course, every crisis has its own way of brewing, expanding, destroying and then dying. It is quite possible that, while the economy is booming, the seeds of future crises have been sown. This is actually a dialectical materialist speculative view of the economic crisis. If we adopt this analysis method, we will find that the rescue of the crisis is bound to be accompanied by the revival of the future, the magnetic industry is the same.
Since the beginning of the last century, the world has experienced a small crisis almost every 3-5 years. In general, major crises around the world are about 30 to 40 years apart. Moreover, since the last century was a century dominated by the United States, major crises were usually associated with the United States. If you don't count the enormous economic damage caused by the two world wars, the two crises that most affected the magnetic industry were the energy crisis of the 1970s and the global financial and credit crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage.
In this crisis, however, a recession is "dangerous". From the perspective of the current magnetic material industry, enterprises are faced with difficulties and situations such as tight capital, shrinking market, declining orders, rising labor costs, strong mobility of technical personnel, fluctuating raw material prices, unable to adapt their product structure to new market changes, fierce market competition, and changes in the RMB exchange rate. Exports are suffering, domestic demand is weak, and sales will continue to decline in the short term. What is a machine? The answer is already there. As the West and its people change their future patterns of overspending and development, new patterns will spawn new markets. It's up to the first person to take the initiative and seize the opportunity. As far as the magnetic industry is concerned, there are plenty of M&A opportunities, talent attraction opportunities and policy market opportunities as the world deals with the crisis. Those who can effectively protect themselves in this crisis, expand their strength through mergers and acquisitions, implement long-term resource and talent strategies, integrate, develop and tap new technical resources, market resources and customer resources, and seize policy-led market opportunities are the strongest in the industry.
2. Countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the crisis
(1) Strengthen the education and training of employees, so that employees know and understand the situation, and share the ups and downs with the enterprise, overcome difficulties together.
② Strengthen the market research and analysis, grasp the policy direction and market opportunities in the dilemma.
(3) Adjust the product and service strategy, optimize the channel coverage strategy, adjust the product marketing strategy, optimize the adjustment and allocation of resources according to the changes in the domestic and foreign markets, as far as possible to avoid market risks.
(4) Enterprises with large export proportion should actively explore the market of developing countries and China's domestic market, adjust the product structure for the European and American markets, improve product competitiveness and innovation ability.
⑤ Preserve the strength, seize the opportunity to develop and strengthen themselves, integrate various resources, combine various forces to save strength, and lay the foundation for future development.
Four. Future market environment changes and market trends
1. Changes in foreign economic environment
With the continuous introduction and implementation of a series of powerful rescue measures led by the United States and Europe, the market and economic environment in Europe and America is still deteriorating, but the speed has slowed down. Especially after the new US President Barack Obama takes office, his powerful financial think tank will play a role in the US economic recovery, the obvious rescue effect will be in the next two to three years. It is expected that in the second half of 2009, the U.S. financial market will end the oscillation and stabilize, and the economic situation will improve in 2010.
2. Domestic policy and market environment
(1) The State Council has taken ten measures to expand domestic demand, with an investment of 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2010.
(2) In 2008, the central bank cut interest rates five times, and the monetary policy changed from tight to stable, which helped to improve the tight financial situation of enterprises;
(3) Home appliances to rural areas to stimulate domestic demand, conducive to the stable growth of domestic consumer electronics application market;
(4) The release of 3G in January 2009 promoted the development of 3G communication application industry;
(5) Reduce the purchase tax of small vehicles to stimulate the automobile and automobile electronic application market.
It can be expected that the state will also introduce a series of policies to ensure the steady growth of China's economy, and the domestic market will continue to improve.
3. Future market trends of magnetic materials
At present, the magnetic industry as a whole, due to the changes in the financial and economic situation at home and abroad, the magnetic material industry as a whole as in 2007 rapid growth, in the next three years will be difficult to see. In January 2009, stimulated by the short term sales of consumer electronics in the Spring Festival, especially in the rural market and 3G communication, most magnetic material enterprises also partially recovered due to lack of inventory. They could make some small orders, but this was only temporary. The first half of 2009 will be a low point for the industry as a whole, which is expected around March. After that, driven by the domestic demand of the consumer electronics market, the development of communications and the market demand of new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, the internal magnetic industry will slowly recover from fluctuations and oscillations. However, due to the large proportion of China's magnetic materials in foreign markets, the overall rapid development of the industry will still rely on the improvement of the European and American markets and the growth of exports. In many kinds of magnetic materials, NdFEB permanent magnet industry will have a prominent performance.
